10.22.10

Severe Weather Today

Posted in Severe Weather Forecast at 11:04 am by Rebekah

The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk for severe weather today, with a 5% chance of tornadoes over south central Oklahoma and north central Texas.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough is located through the Texas Panhandle into central Texas, with strong upper-level winds around the base and just downstream of the trough.

An elongated surface low stretches from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle, while a diffuse dryline, expected to tighten this afternoon and move eastward, is situated in the west central Texas Panhandle. There is a pretty significant wind shift along this boundary, with westerly winds in eastern New Mexico, southerly winds in the central Texas Panhandle, and southeasterly winds in the east Texas Panhandle.

Dewpoints in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle are in the mid- to upper 50s, but moisture is surging north and they could get into the lower 60s later today.

There is still an MCS in western Oklahoma, but the storm’s outflow boundary in western Oklahoma / southeast of the Texas Panhandle could aid in storm initiation.

There is quite a bit of cloud cover associated with the MCS, which could limit heating and instability, but skies are already clearing in some areas of northern Texas and far western Oklahoma.

CAPE values could reach 1000 or even 1500 this afternoon around Wichita Falls to Shamrock, Texas, and mid-level lapse rates are decent as well.

Vertical wind shear will certainly not be lacking…this morning’s sounding from Norman showed a perfectly curved hodograph. 0 to 6 km shear is at 50 to 60 knots over the Texas Panhandle and northern Texas, and will maintain values close to that into the afternoon / evening. Surface winds are backed over Oklahoma and north Texas, so the chance is decent for supercells to form, if storms initiate and can maintain a solid updraft.

And if supercells do form, there is a decent chance for tornadoes, given low-level wind shear and increasing moisture.

I’m not completely sold on this one yet…I have stick around here ’til 1pm anyway, and I’ll make a decision at that point. As of now, my target would probably be around Wichita Falls, Texas to Altus, Oklahoma.

If I go, it’ll be without streaming or being on Spotter Network, as I don’t want to upgrade my cell plan to tethering again for only one chase. However, I’ll keep you updated!

Permalink