03.19.11
Posted in Severe Weather Post-analysis, Weather News at 8:00 am by Rebekah
Yesterday morning a tornado or two touched down not far north of the San Francisco Bay.
The one storm report showing up right now on the Storm Prediction Center site is for a tornado at 1615Z (9:15 am Pacific Time) in Santa Rosa, California. The report said “EF1 tornado completely destroyed metal building and severely bent metal gate.”
I also heard that there may have been another tornado yesterday over the water, making it a waterspout.
While there were a few tornado-warned supercells around the Bay Area, the primary severe weather threat in the area was for high winds.
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03.18.11
Posted in Weather - Miscellaneous at 8:00 am by Rebekah
My specific research topic in meteorology is storm electrification and lightning. Lightning both fascinates and scares me. So when I was checking out The Weather Channel’s web page last night, a certain article caught my eye: “Lightning-Prone States“.
I knew that Florida was the lightning capital of the U.S., but what other states are on the list?
Here are the top five lightning-prone states, based on the average annual number (from 1996 – 2008) of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes per square mile.
- Florida – 25.3 strikes per square mile
- Louisiana – 20.3 strikes per square mile
- Mississippi – 18.0 strikes per square mile
- Alabama – 15.9 strikes per square mile
- South Carolina / Oklahoma – 14.6 strikes per square mile
There are really no surprises there; they’re all in the Southeast, with the exception of Oklahoma, which gets plenty of Southern Plains thunderstorm action in Tornado Alley.
What about the bottom of the lower 48?
My home state of Washington wins that award, with just 0.3 lightning strikes per square mile. (And THAT, folks, is the single biggest reason I decided to go to the University of Oklahoma for graduate school; I wanted to see more frequent, powerful thunderstorms in person.) The article from The Weather Channel also says that Washington gets only 1% to 2% of the number of lightning strikes per year that Florida gets. Furthermore, since 1959, Washington has had the lowest number of fatalities (five) due to lightning.
The other four states in the bottom five are Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and California.
The U.S. on average see 25 million lightning strikes per year, with a 30-year (1980 – 2009) average of 57 fatalities attributed to lightning each year (tied with tornadoes and second only to flooding). Here’s a National Weather Service page with statistics on the 10-year and 30-year average annual number of weather-related deaths.
Speaking of lightning, it was unseasonably warm here yesterday and later today we’re expecting a cold front that could assist in the development of some thunderstorms (and there could be more early next week). Bring on the rain!
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03.17.11
Posted in Weather News at 8:00 am by Rebekah
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Here’s the 6 to 10 day Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook, valid for Tuesday through Saturday of next week:
Note that below normal temperatures are still expected for the western U.S. as well as the far Northeast, while above normal temperatures are expected for the south central to southeastern U.S.
Now take a look at the precipitation outlook for the same period:
Above normal precipitation areas include the western and northern U.S., especially northern California and the Great Lakes region. Below normal precipitation is expected to continue in the south central and southeastern U.S.
Unfortunately, there is no relief in the near future for areas that need rain and those that don’t. Last week’s drought monitor (there should be a new one coming out today) showed the drought in the southern U.S.
Earlier this week we got a few sprinkles in central Oklahoma, which went on to form a decent line of showers in southeastern Oklahoma. The sound of rain seemed so foreign to me that I wasn’t sure at first what I was hearing out my window. 🙂
A number of the southern states could sure use some more rain soon.
It does appear that there may be some hope of thunderstorms in the southern into the central Plains early next week, but it’s a little too early to be sure right now as the western trough seems to move a little slower with each model run.
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03.16.11
Posted in Climate Change, Non-US Weather at 8:00 am by Rebekah
Last week I went to an interesting seminar in the National Weather Center, given by Dr. David Karoly of the University of Melbourne, titled “The recent extreme weather in eastern Australia: A sign of climate change or the response to La Niña?”
Dr. Karoly is from Australia, but spent several years as a meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma. His specialty is climate, more specifically climate change, and he is on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (thus he shared in the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore in 2007). On a side note, when Dr. Karoly and his wife moved back to Melbourne a few years ago, they gave me their cat, Ginger, the one I still have today.
Anyway, today I thought I’d summarize and share some of the main points from the seminar.
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Extreme Weather Events in 2010/2011
- Heavy rain events in Queensland, Victoria, Northern Territory
- Flooding in eastern Australia
- Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit the northeast Queensland coast
- Heat waves / bushfires in southwest Western Australia
- Heat waves / bushfires in Sydney in January
Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley Flash Floods, 10 – 12 January
- 30 people killed in floods following heavy rains on 10 January
- 1 day rainfall of 298 mm (11.7 inches) on 10 January in Peachester, Queensland
- 3 day (10 to 12 January) rainfall of 617 mm (24.3 inches) in Peachester
- Not the heaviest rainfall, though; 25 to 27 January 1974 had a 3 day total of over 1000 mm (39 inches)
Brisbane Floods, 13 January
- No loss of life
- Followed very heavy rain in the Brisbane River catchment from 10 to 12 January
- River flood peak of 4.46 m (14.6 ft)
- January 1974 flood peak was 5.6 m (18.4 ft), following 1 day rainfall of 600 mm (23.6 inches), 3 day rainfall of 314 mm (12.4 inches)
- This year, “only” 166 mm (6.5 inches) in one day in Brisbane, so most of the flooding was from rain/flooding upstream
Victorian Floods, 12 – 14 January
- Rain and flooding
- Very moist, tropical air arrived with a trough
- Record high precipitable water, 64.8 mm (2.6 inches), observed with the 11Z sounding in Melbourne on 13 January…in 40 years of observations, this was 20% higher than the previous sounding record
Summer Rainfall, 2010 – 2011
- Record summer rainfall in Victoria, 30% higher than the previous record
- Highest summer rainfall in Queensland, but it was still much higher in the summer of 1973 – 1974
Record Rain in Darwin, Northern Territory 15 – 17 February
- Less unusual to have heavy rain in Darwin, but slow-moving Tropical Cyclone Carlos was unusual
- 1 day rainfall record of 368 mm (14.5 inches) on 16 February in Darwin
Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Yasi
- 1 death attributed to Yasi, as a result of fumes from a diesel generator
- Very well forecast tropical cyclone
- Landfall around midnight on 3 February, near Innisfail and Cardwell, Queensland
- Weather station at Clump Point observed a minimum pressure of 929 mb at landfall
Southwest Western Australia Lack of Rainfall
- Very dry, below average rainfall
- Fires
Are these events due to greenhouse climate change or natural variability?
La Niña and Summer Rainfall
- La Niña was very high during the Australian summer; one of the strongest on record
- La Niña brings stronger trade winds, warmer seas around northeastern Australia, and higher rains to the northeastern Australian coast and Indonesia
- Australian summer was also warm in many parts of the country, including the west coast
- The heavy rains and floods of the Australian 1973 – 1974 summer also occurred during La Niña
Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
- December 2010 saw SSTs 20% warmer than any other year (in about 100 years) around not just the northeast coast, but much of Australia
- There has been a warming trend in December SST anomalies since 1900
Climate Change Signals
- The area getting heavy rain has been increasing
- Significant increase in warm nights agrees with models that show this amount of warming attributable to anthropogenic climate change
- It is believed that climate change has led to record high SSTs around Australia and higher moisture content, likely contributing factors to the increased rainfall
- HOWEVER, it’s too early to link precipitation to climate change models, as this is much more difficult and not statistically significant right now
- While Queensland landfalling tropical cyclones occur twice as often in La Niña years, there has been a marked decrease in severe landfalling tropical cyclones since 1870…this is in contrast to the IPCC claim that there should be an increase in severity on average everywhere…not sure why there is this discrepancy
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If you have any questions or comments, let me know! For some figures showing rainfall totals and anomalies across Australia, I refer you to a previous post I made, The Big Wet.
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03.15.11
Posted in Non-US Weather, Weather News at 8:00 am by Rebekah
This week’s post in the global weather and climate series features Sendai, Japan, one of the hardest-hit cities by last week’s 9.0 earthquake and ensuing tsunami.
Montage of Sendai, from Wikipedia
Founded in 1600, Sendai, known also by its nickname “The City of Trees”, is the capital of Miyagi Prefecture in Japan. The city is situated on the northeastern coast of Japan’s largest island, Honshu, and stretches from the Pacific Ocean to the Ōu Mountains. The highest point in the city is Mount Funagata (about 4,950 feet, or 1,500 meters tall). Sendai has a population of just over 1 million.
On Friday, March 11, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and a tsunami of up to 33 feet (10 meters) tragically affected Sendai and many nearby cities. The following image, from Wikipedia (taken by the U.S. Navy), shows Sendai after the tsunami.
A few more facts about Sendai (from Wikipedia):
- Time zone: Japan Standard Time (UTC+9)
- Elevation: near sea level, but hilly
- Climate zone: Humid subtropical (cool, relatively dry winters and warm, wet summers)
- Average high temperature: 61 °F (16 °C)
- Average low temperature: 47 °F (9 °C)
- Average annual high/low temperature range: 41 to 82 °F (5 to 28 °C) / 28 to 70 °F (-2 to 21 °C)
- Average annual precipitation: 49 inches (1,242 mm)
- Average annual snowfall: 35 inches (90 cm)
Weather: The weather station in Sendai, located at Sendai Airport, stopped reporting as soon as the tsunami struck it, presumably damaging or destroying the instruments if not carrying them away. That being said, temperatures in the area have been fairly cool and typical for this time of year.
Currently, the primary surface feature near Japan is a surface low sitting off the east coast of the country, and this low will rapidly strengthen as it moves to the northeast.
Highs in Sendai this week will be around 40 °F until Saturday, when the temperature is expected to warm up to the mid-50s. Lows will range from the mid-20s to near 30 °F. There is a slight chance of some rain and snow almost every day and night this week (the greatest chance for snow is tonight).
Please keep the people of Japan and everyone affected by the recent disaster in your thoughts and prayers, including the aid workers and those working tirelessly and bravely to keep the nuclear damage at a minimum.
For weather maps and information on current and forecast Sendai weather, see the Japan Meteorological Agency, Weather Underground and Weather Online UK (maps and models).
For a bit more information on Sendai, here’s a link to Wikipedia
Next Tuesday I plan to take a look at the climate and weather in another part of the globe. As always, if you have any suggestions for future cities, please leave a comment!
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